CFB - Lock of the Year!

NCAA Football Betting Lines

06/15/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - My 2007 college football conference previews wont begin for another month but with the NBA Finals over and the Triple Crown races completed, its time to jump all over a week one contest that looks too good to be true - Georgia Tech at Notre Dame.

Yes, I know the game wont be played until September 1st. Nonetheless, how many five-star plays are so obvious they cannot wait to be released, even with two and a half months in the interim?

Notre Dame was the NCAAs medias darling last season, despite losing by a combined 73 points to LSU, USC and Michigan. The Fighting Irish had won three games over Georgia Tech, Michigan State and UCLA by a grand total of 10 points and their other seven victories came against teams with a combined record of 37-51.

The Irish finished the season at 10-3, but with a disturbing 4-8-1 mark against the spread (ATS). The much-ballyhooed offensive attack never materialized as the team averaged six points and 66 yards less per game in 07 as opposed to 06. The boys from South Bend ended with a 6-1 home mark with a disastrous ATS record of 2-5.

Georgia Tech had won nine of 10 games after dropping a 14-10 decision to Notre Dame in week one last year. However, three straight losses to end the year left the Yellow Jackets with a disappointing 9-5 record. One statistic that contributed to the losing ways was a turnover differential of -6 in those final three contests.

Calvin Johnson caught his last ball at Georgia Tech, which is a major negative, but the fact that Reggie Ball has thrown his last pass makes up for it. Taylor Bennett will start for the Jackets this season after completing 19-of-29 for 326 yards and three TDs in the Gator Bowl loss to West Virginia. The 326 yards were the most thrown in a game by a single Tech QB since 2001.

NOTRE DAME OFFENSE VS. GEORGIA TECH DEFENSE

We will finally see how much of a difference Charlie Weis can make with a team that returns just nine overall starters, along with a brand new quarterback, halfback and two wide receivers. There are three QBs vying for the number one job, including top prospect, Jimmy Clausen, but none have impressed the coaching staff enough to gain a decided edge.

Weis has already stated that the team will look to run the ball much more in 07, especially in the early going. Unfortunately, both guards from last year have moved on leaving the team extremely inexperienced inside the tackles for that type of offense.

Georgia Techs defensive strength resides in its front four. The Jackets' run defense ranked second to Miami in ACC play, giving up just 91 yards per game. They also tied the Hurricanes with 24 sacks, led by linebacker Philip Wheeler who had nine. The senior finished the year second on the team in tackles (89), including 10 against the Irish!

Another big negative for Notre Dame in this opening day match-up is the lack of height of its new wide receivers. David Grimes and George West are both under six feet, while last years starters Jeff Samardzija and Rhema McKnight were 6-feet-5 and 6-feet-2, respectively. Both of Techs projected starting corners are 6-feet or over. The Yellow Jackets were one of only 30 schools to have more interceptions than TD passes allowed, and they return four players in the secondary who started at least seven games last season.

NOTRE DAME DEFENSE VS. GEORGIA TECH OFFENSE

A new coordinator will be roaming the sidelines for the Fighting Irish this year. Corwin Brown, who had been the New York Jets DBs coach, takes over for Rick Minter, and will institute a change from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4. Its a smart move since the club has lost three starters from 2006.

The back seven, led by super safety Tom Zbikowski and leading tackler, LB Maurice Crum, will be the strength of the unit, but the run defense is a major question mark. Last year, with an experienced front four, opponents rushed for just under four yards per carry. In addition, 19 of the clubs 31 sacks have to be replaced as Victor Abiamiri and Derek Landri have taken 17.5 of them to the NFL.

Georgia Techs superb rushing attack will take full advantage of NDs weak defensive line, which allowed 176 yards (4.9 ypc) to its own top four halfbacks in the Spring Game. Yellow Jackets running back Tashard Choice, who led the ACC in rushing last year with 1,473 and a 5.0 average, will have a field day vs. the Irish, especially since hell be running behind an experienced offensive line that returns four starters.

New quarterback Bennett Taylor cemented his position as Techs future signal- caller by completing 10-of-15 passes for 197 yards in the spring game. Even though Calvin Johnson is gone, look for James Johnson and redshirt freshman, Demaryius Thomas to pick up the slack. Johnson caught 39 balls last season, improving from just 14 as a freshman and Thomas was the talk of the spring with six receptions for 87 yards.

LAST YEARS GAME

They met in South Bend on September 2, 2006 with Notre Dame pulling out the four-point victory, failed to cover the 6.5-point spread. The Jackets raced to an early 10-0 lead only to see it whittle away midway in the third quarter. A questionable late hit called on Philip Wheeler gave Brady Quinn and the ND offense an automatic first down on third-and-10 deep inside Georgia Tech territory. The Irish cashed in when Darius Walker scampered 13 yards for the go-ahead and eventual winning score.

Most of the Notre Dame's yardage came from Quinn and Walker. They combined for 345 of the 384 total yards - a figure that wont be repeated this season. Even though the contest will be played in South Bend, Georgia Tech has the edge in all skill positions, and more importantly, on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

WINNING ON THR ROAD

The Jackets have fared well in their opening road contest each of the last three years, so being away from home will pose no problems. They handed Virginia Tech its first loss of the season last year, defeated Auburn the previous season, 23-14, and chopped down Clemson in Death Valley back in 2004. The Irish will be three to five-point favorites in this contest and they wont even win the game!

Throughout the season there will be many other opportunities to cash in, but none look as strong as this match-up of a team geared for a top-15 finish against a highly-overrated club that might get a bowl bid on name alone. Stay tuned throughout the summer, as I preview more opening week match-ups while unlocking the easiest wins in early September.

Ganblenet NCAA Football Betting News

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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends

We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”.  With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit.  Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.

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