Capuano picks up win as Brewers down Pirates

Baseball Betting Lines

07/19/2010 - Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rickie Weeks hit a two-run homer and Chris Capuano picked up his first win in over three years, as the Milwaukee Brewers earned a 3-1 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates in the opener of a four-game series at PNC Park.

Prince Fielder also homered for Milwaukee, which has won six of its last eight overall despite being held to only three hits. The Brewers have now won five straight against the Pirates.

Capuano (1-1), who returned to the mound on June 3 after undergoing dual Tommy John surgeries, hadn't won a game since May 7, 2007. In this one, the left- hander allowed one run on three hits, walked one and struck out four in throwing only 65 pitches over five innings. John Axford threw a scoreless ninth to register his 12th save of the season.

Ronny Cedeno had a pair of hits, including a run-scoring triple for the Pirates, who had taken two of three games versus Houston over the weekend. Pittsburgh has dropped eight of its last 10.

Jeff Karstens (2-5) was saddled with the loss despite throwing six solid innings. The righty allowed three runs on as many hits, struck out six and did not issue a walk.

Pittsburgh appeared to have something going in the bottom of the ninth, trailing 3-1. Axford came on and gave up a leadoff single to Garrett Jones, then walked Pedro Alvarez. However, the right-hander struck out the next two batters before retiring Cedeno on a groundout to second that sealed the win.

Karstens pitched two perfect innings before rain halted play for 50 minutes prior to the bottom of the second. When play continued the Pirates right- hander picked up where he left off by retiring the next six batters before Fielder broke the string with a homer to left leading off the fifth.

Alvarez drew a leadoff walk in the home half and crossed the plate on Cedeno's two-out triple to center that evened things. Karstens lined out to third to end the inning.

Milwaukee then regained the lead in the sixth. Carlos Gomez reached with a one-out, pinch-hit bunt single and Weeks followed by crushing a fastball into the left-field seats for a 3-1 game.

Pittsburgh stranded a pair of runners in the seventh and Kameron Loe, who retired the final batter in the inning, set the Pirates down in order in the eighth.

Game Notes

Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen sat out the game after suffering a right shoulder injury in Sunday's win versus Houston and is listed as day-to- day...Karstens fell to 0-3 in nine career games -- six starts -- against Milwaukee...Pittsburgh finished 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position and stranded seven.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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