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03/14/2010 - Sao Paulo, Brazil (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Reigning IZOD IndyCar Series champion Dario Franchitti will start on the pole for the Sao Paulo Indy 300 after posting the fastest time in Sunday's qualifying on the streets of Sao Paulo.
One day after qualifying was delayed due to poor track conditions, Franchitti lapped the 2.6-mile, 11-turn street circuit in one minute, 27.7354 seconds. Qualifying took place on the same day as the race -- a first for the series.
"I was a little surprised to get into (the Firestone Fast Six)," Franchitti said. "I didn't have a very good day yesterday. We struggled to get my car the way I wanted it to work."
IRL officials postponed Saturday's scheduled qualifying after slippery concrete and very bumpy conditions along the front straightaway portion of the track presented safety concerns. Part of the straight rests on an area referred to as the Anbembi Sambodromo, which is one-third of a mile in length. The track surface in that section recently was painted for an annual spring carnival in Sao Paulo.
Track officials brought in grinding equipment and added grooves to the track overnight. Drivers participated in a 30-minute warm-up session during the morning, and track conditions significantly improved.
Franchitti was among several drivers who spun and crashed during the first two practice sessions.
Alex Tagliani, making his debut with the FAZZT Race Team, grabbed the outside pole after finishing 0.322 seconds behind Franchitti.
Justin Wilson, in his first run with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing, qualified third. Ryan Hunter-Reay and Will Power rounded out the top-five.
Tony Kanaan, Scott Dixon, who was fastest in two of the three practice sessions, Ryan Briscoe, Brazilian Helio Castroneves and rookie Takuma Sato will start sixth through 10th, respectively.
Danica Patrick, fresh off a three-race NASCAR Nationwide Series stint, will start 13th.
<< Reeling Raptors finish road trip in Portland
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The reeling Toronto Raptors haven't been playing like a
team headed toward the postseason and will try and salvage the finale of a
four-game road trip Sunday night against the surging Portland Trail Blazers.
The Raptors fe
<< Wolves, Kings clash in Sacramento
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams headed for the NBA Draft Lottery tangle in
Sacramento tonight as the Kings play host to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Sacramento lost for the fourth time in five outings on Friday when Brandon Roy
poured in 28 poin
<< Suns resume homestand vs. fading Hornets
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Phoenix Suns hope to get back on the winning track
Sunday when they resume a season-long seven-game homestand against the
fading New Orleans Hornets at US Airways Center.
The Suns fell to 1-2 on their residency Friday
<< Surging Flames visit Canucks, GM Place
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Flames are getting hot at just the right time. Calgary
will try to match its longest winning streak of the season tonight when it
visits GM Place to take on the Vancouver Canucks.
The Flames have won four straight as t
Ford out of Pacers' lineup 7 to 10 days >>
MILWAUKEE (AP) -Pacers point guard T.J. Ford is expected to miss seven to 10 days with a sore left groin.Coach Jim O'Brien made the announcement before Indiana played the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday.Ford was injured early in the first quarter of a los
Capitals star Ovechkin gets game misconduct >>
CHICAGO (AP) -NHL scoring leader Alex Ovechkin is out of the Capitals' game against the Blackhawks after receiving a five-minute major and a game misconduct in the first period for driving Chicago's Brian Campbell into the boards from behind.Ovechki
Reid to work out at LSU Monday >>
HOUSTON (AP) -Bobby Reid hasn't played football since a 2008 injury, but the former Oklahoma State quarterback might get another chance at reviving his once-promising career.Reid, who became known more for Mike Gundy's now infamous ``I'm a man. I'm
Capitals-Blackhawks Sum >>
Washington 0 0 3 1-4Chicago 2 1 0 0-3First Period-1, Chicago, Toews 21 (Hjalmarsson, P.Kane), 7:00. 2, Chicago, Toews 22 (Sharp, P.Kane), 16:54 (pp).Second Period-3, Chicago, Madden 10 (Keith), 6:54.Third Period-4, Washington, Laich 22 (Gre
In part two of MySportsbook.com’s draft preview, we’ll take a look at a division that was extremely disappointing last season: the NFC South. Many “experts” predicted the Panthers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, of course they could not even make the playoffs in an extremely weak NFC. The Saints definitely made up for the disappointing seasons of their NFC South brethren by exploding out of no where en route to the NFC Championship game. For the avid NFL gambler, it is imperative to pay attention to the NFL draft. Although free agency gets a ton of publicity, the successful franchises build their teams around the draft.
1. New Orleans Saints
Who would have thought this time last year that the Saints would be the favorites to win the NFC South for the 2007 campaign? New Orleans is loaded with firepower on the offensive side of the ball but with the exodus of Joe Horn they will most likely look to draft a WR on Day 1. Despite having the NFL’s 3rd ranked pass defense last season, the Saints will most likely upgrade their CB’s with one of their first two picks. Other possibilities for the Saints will be TE and DT. Because of where they will be selecting (27th), the Saints could go the “best available player” route which could net a LB.
Key additions: Eric Johnson TE, Troy Evans LB, David Patten WR
Key loses: Joe Horn WR,
Team needs: CB, WR, TE, LB, DT
Possible draftees: Aaron Ross CB Texas, Darrelle Revis CB Pitt, Ted Ginn Jr. WR OSU, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Chris Houston CB Arkansas, Greg Olsen TE Miami
2. Carolina Panthers
Carolina was one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL last season. With the signing of David Carr, expect the very first quarterback controversy to come out of Carolina if Jake Delhomme doesn’t rebound quickly from an average 2007 season. With veteran safety Mike Minter getting up there in age, they will look to draft a safety on Day 1 but probably not in the first round. LB is another need with the loss of Chris Draft to go along with Dan Morgan’s concussion problems. If TE Greg Olsen is still on the board, he might be too good to pass up despite their needs on the defensive side of the ball.
Key additions: David Carr QB
Key loses: Chris Draft LB
Team needs: LB, TE, S, OT
Possible draftees: Greg Olsen TE Miami, Patrick Willis LB Ole Miss, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Levi Brown OT PSU
3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were another NFC South team to have a disappointing 2007 season. The Falcons have been plenty busy during the off season with plenty of players coming and going including a new head coach. The Falcons were able to improve their draft position with the trade of coveted backup QB Matt Schaub. High on the list of Day 1 needs will be a defensive end to replace Patrick Kerney and a hard hitting safety since Lawyer Milloy is nearing the end of his career. With an additional 2nd round pick, the Falcons could attempt to trade up to acquire local product WR Calvin Johnson.
Key additions: Joey Harrington QB, Toniu Fonoti OG, Joe Horn WR
Key loses: Justin Griffen RB, Patrick Kerney DE, Matt Lehr OG, Ashley Lelie WR, Matt Schaub QB
Team needs: DE, S, OT, WR, DT
Possible draftees: LaRon Landry S LSU, Amobi Okoye DT Louisville, Levi Brown OT PSU, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas, Alan Branch DT Michigan
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age really caught up to the Bucs last season. The Bucs still have plenty of household names on defense in Ronde Barber, Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks but the one thing those three have in common is unfortunately age. It is imperative for the Bucs to get much younger, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Despite having bigger needs on the defensive side of the ball, WR Calvin Johnson is the most likely pick if he is still available when the Bucs pick at the four spot. This would suit Bucs’ faithful just fine as Johnson is widely considered the top talent in the draft and it is a position of need for the Bucs.
Key additions: Jeff Garcia QB, Kevin Carter DE, Torrie Cox CB, Cato June LB
Key loses: Dewayne White DE, Sean Mahan OG
Team needs: WR, LB, DE, CB (Youth on defense!)
Possible draftees: Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech, Gains Adams DE Clemson, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas
It is never too early to start betting on the NFL. Log on to MySportsbook.com to checkout all of the NFL futures for the upcoming season. On the clock: the NFC North
Odds to win the NFC South:
New Orleans Saints 8-5
Carolina Panthers 2-1
Atlanta Falcons 12-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-2
Odds to win the NFC:
New Orleans Saints 13-2
Carolina Panthers 7-1
Atlanta Falcons 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-1
Odds to win the Super Bowl:
New Orleans Saints 18-1
Carolina Panthers 20-1
Atlanta Falcons 50-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75-1
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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