Miller expecting plenty of open looks with Heat

Basketball Betting Lines

07/20/2010 -

MIAMI (AP) -With just about every Miami Heat acquisition this summer, another recruiting story seems to emerge.

Dwyane Wade helped lure LeBron James and Chris Bosh. James played a big role in talking Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Mike Miller into coming to Miami.

And now, Miller is taking a turn.

Only days after signing with Miami, Miller is talking to close pal Jason Williams about reuniting with the team. Williams started at point guard for the Heat during Miami's championship season in 2006.

``I'd love to have him,'' said Miller, who spoke to Williams on Sunday. ``Obviously, it has to work out on both sides. J-Will would have to want to come back and Miami would have to be good with that. I just talked to him more as a friend, just to see how he's doing and what he's thinking about doing. I'm just excited for him. He had an unbelievable year last year and we'll see what happens in the future here.''

It might be a long shot, getting Williams back to Miami.

Fortunately for the Heat, Miller didn't need much convincing.

He agreed to a deal with Miami shortly after James said he was coming to join Wade and Bosh. Like at least four other players - James, Wade, Bosh and Udonis Haslem - Miller took significantly less money from Heat owner Micky Arison than he could have made elsewhere in order to be part of the rebuilt Miami roster.

Miller took a five-year deal worth around $25 million. So far this summer, Miami has closed roughly $400 million worth of deals, and done so at what might be considered around the league as bargain prices.

``In order for it to happen, it took a lot of moving parts to come together,'' Miller said. ``For one, (Heat president) Pat Riley had to do an amazing job to clear cap space, and then Mr. Arison had to go out and spend every dollar he could possibly spend to get everybody and then guys had to take less. So it was a commitment all around the board.''

Miller isn't sure if he'll start for Miami this coming season, nor has he been told exactly what role he'll have on the rebuilt Heat roster.

He just knows he should be open - a lot.

The NBA's second-best shooter from 3-point range last season came to the Heat in large part because of the opportunities he could get playing alongside Wade and James. Knowing they'll be double-covered much of the time, someone should usually be open, and that somebody could very well be him.

``There should be a lot of looks,'' Miller said. ``There's no question about it.''

Miller has started at least 47 games in nine of his first 10 NBA seasons, with the lone exception when he came off the bench 65 times for Memphis in 2005-06. He was a runaway winner of the NBA's sixth man award that season, easily outdistancing Speedy Claxton and Jerry Stackhouse.

Being the top reserve might be his starting point in Miami. Miller plays shooting guard and small forward primarily, spots also held by Wade and James.

``We can chalk those guys in as the starters,'' Miller said. ``I think it'll probably be a role that I play and I have no problem with that. I'm just here to help win games and if that's one of the ways that we can do it, then that's what I'll do.''

Coming to Miami also made sense to Miller in one other way. He gets to pair with Haslem again.

They were teammates on the Florida team that lost the 2000 NCAA title game. And Miller and Haslem have talked for years about the chance to be teammates one more time.

``Unfinished business,'' Miller said.

They'll have a chance at a bigger prize together with the Heat.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.